Bunker benchmarks in European and African ports have shown mixed market directions, and rough weather may cause bunkering disruptions off Malta today. 

Changes on the day to 09.00 GMT today:

• VLSFO prices up in Durban ($1/mt), unchanged in Gibraltar, and down in Rotterdam ($1/mt) 
• LSMGO prices up in Rotterdam ($7/mt), and down in Gibraltar ($1/mt)
• HSFO prices up in Rotterdam ($5/mt), and down in Gibraltar ($14/mt)
• Rotterdam B30-VLSFO at a $182/mt premium over VLSFO

A higher-priced non-prompt LSMGO stem fixed in Rotterdam in the past day for $655/mt for 500-1500 mt has raised the benchmark higher. The price gain has narrowed Rotterdam’s LSMGO discount to Gibraltar by $8/mt to $63/mt now. 

In Gibraltar, a lower-priced HSFO stem fixed for non-prompt delivery and booked for $467/mt for 150-1500 mt in the past day has triggered a $14/mt drop in the benchmark. This has narrowed Gibraltar’s HSFO premium over Rotterdam by $19/mt to around $27/mt now - the narrowest in the past month.

Malta Offshore is currently experiencing bad weather, a trader said. Off Malta, strong wind gusts forecast in the 26-33 knots range may disrupt bunkering today. Calm weather is forecast from Thursday. 

Meanwhile, prompt delivery is good in Turkey’s Istanbul with some suppliers able to supply grades within a day, a trader said.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has inched $0.05/bbl lower on the day, to trade at $73.16/bbl at 09.00 GMT.

Upward pressure:

Oil prices gained some upward thrust after the US Department of Commerce revised its GDP estimate upward for the third quarter.

The US gross domestic product (GDP), a key indicator of demand growth and consumer spending activity, increased at an annualised rate of 3.1% in the third quarter of this year, up from the initial estimate of 2.8%, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said. 

The upward revision has shown resilience in the country's economic growth in the third quarter of this year, as it was better than previously estimated. It has supported demand growth expectations in the global oil market, according to analysts.

Oil market analysts and traders are now waiting to factor in the potential changes in the US economy when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office on 20 January 2025.

The oil market is in a “wait-and-watch mode for what 2025 brings,” VANDA Insights’ founder and analyst Vandana Hari said.

Downward pressure:

Brent’s price inched marginally lower in pre-Christmas trade as global financial markets held largely stable during the year-end holiday season.

Brent has felt some downward pressure due to concerns about the slowdown in Chinese oil demand, according to analysts.

Oil demand in the world’s second-largest consumer is expected to peak around 2027, market intelligence provider JLC reported citing Chinese state-owned oil company Sinopec.

Chinese officials have pledged to roll out a new stimulus package next year to revive the country’s economy. However, oil market analysts remain cautious, tempering expectations of a significant boost to oil demand from these measures.

The country will likely consume about 750 million mt and 770 million mt of crude oil this year and in 2025, respectively, Sinopec said in its report.

“Oil stays locked in a boring trading range a coming cold blast,” Price Futures Group’s senior market analyst Phil Flynn said.

By Manjula Nair and Aparupa Mazumder

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