News 2 days ago

East of Suez Market Update 6 Mar 2024

Colombo
Fujairah
Hambantota
Singapore
Zhoushan
HSFO
LSMGO
VLSFO

Prices in East of Suez ports have mirrored Brent’s downturn, and VLSFO and LSMGO supply remains good in the Sri Lankan ports of Colombo and Hambantota.


Changes on the day, to 17.00 SGT (09.00 GMT) today:

  • VLSFO prices down in Singapore ($9/mt), Fujairah ($7/mt) and Zhoushan ($5/mt)
  • LSMGO prices down in Singapore and Fujairah ($8/mt), and Zhoushan ($4/mt)
  • HSFO prices down in Zhoushan ($13/mt), Singapore ($10/mt) and Fujairah ($6/mt)
  • B24-VLSFO at a $147/mt premium over VLSFO in Singapore
  • B24-VLSFO at a $215/mt premium over VLSFO in Fujairah

Singapore’s VLSFO price has dropped by $9/mt in the past day, reaching its lowest level in over a year. Three lower-priced VLSFO stems, fixed within a narrow $8/mt range, have contributed to the decline. Singapore’s VLSFO price currently stands at near-parity with Fujairah and Zhoushan.

VLSFO availability in Singapore has tightened, with lead times extending to 5–12 days, up from 2–10 days last week. LSMGO lead times have also increased, rising from 2–4 days to 5–9 days. In contrast, HSFO supply has improved, with lead times shortening from 2–10 days last week to 3–7 days now.

B24-VLSFO prices in Singapore have surged to around $160-$170/mt, significantly higher than the $120-$130/mt range seen a few weeks ago.

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has issued a circular for the early implementation of the IMO’s interim draft, allowing conventional bunker carriers to transport biofuel blends of up to B30.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s Colombo continues to price its VLSFO at elevated levels compared to Singapore, with a premium of $101/mt.

Suppliers in Colombo have good stocks of VLSFO and LSMGO but lead times have increased from four days last week to around six days now. Similarly, in Hambantota, lead times have risen from about four days to six days.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has declined by $1.47/bbl on the day, to trade at $69.28/bbl at 17.00 SGT (09.00 GMT).

Upward pressure:

Brent has found modest support from improving sentiments in the broader financial markets, after the US government granted a one-month exemption to automakers in Canada and Mexico from 25% import tariffs, the Associated Press (AP) reported.

The news comes as a relief after the US struck the first blow in trade wars with Canada, Mexico and China, which has rattled financial markets and weighed on demand growth sentiment.

“...sentiment in the financial markets began to recover as the US exempted Canadian and Mexican automakers from import tariffs and indicated it was weighing exclusions for some other sectors,” VANDA Insights’ founder and analyst Vandana Hari remarked.

Downward pressure:

Brent has dropped below the $70/bbl threshold for the first time since September 2024, driven by concerns over slowing oil demand in an oversupplied global market and impending tariffs.

Eight members of the Saudi Arabia-led OPEC+ oil producers’ group have reaffirmed plans to proceed with a gradual unwinding of cuts from 1 April. They have 2.2 million b/d in combined production cuts.

This development is expected to add about 138,000 b/d of crude oil to the market, which could dampen demand and exert downward pressure on Brent, according to market analysts.

“Sentiment remains weak following OPEC’s decision to go ahead with its planned production hikes in April,” ANZ Bank senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said.

Brent came under further downward pressure after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3.6 million-bbl rise in commercial US crude inventories. The EIA data was “fairly bearish,” two analysts from ING Bank said.

“Rising OPEC supply and prospects for further increases, combined with ever-present tariff uncertainty, pushed the market lower,” ING Bank analysts added.

By Tuhin Roy and Aparupa Mazumder

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