Regional bunker benchmarks have gained with Brent, and rough weather in Gibraltar may impact bunkering tomorrow. 

Changes on the day, from Friday to 09.00 GMT today:

• VLSFO prices up in Gibraltar ($22/mt), Rotterdam ($16/mt) and Durban ($6/mt)  
• LSMGO prices up in Gibraltar ($27/mt) and Rotterdam ($24/mt)
• HSFO prices up in Gibraltar ($17/mt) and Rotterdam ($11/mt)
• Rotterdam B30-VLSFO at a $202/mt premium over VLSFO

Gibraltar’s VLSFO price has increased by $22/mt, while Rotterdam's benchmark has risen by $16/mt. The price moves have widened Gibraltar’s VLSFO premium over Rotterdam by $6/mt, to $45/mt now. Gibraltar’s Hi5 spread has also widened from $62/mt on Friday to $67/mt now. 

Gibraltar’s LSMGO price has increased the most compared to other regional hubs. Gibraltar’s LSMGO price premium over Rotterdam is around $80/mt. Bunkering disruptions may occur in Gibraltar on Tuesday with strong wind gusts of up to 26 knots forecast in the port. 

Meanwhile, the Canary Islands’ port of Las Palmas has seen strong demand for VLSFO and LSMGO grades over the weekend. Several lower-priced VLSFO stems have curbed the benchmark’s rise. The price moves have flipped Las Palmas’ $7/mt VLSFO premium over Gibraltar to a $12/mt discount now. Las Palmas’ Hi5 spread has also narrowed over the weekend, from $57/mt on Friday to around $37/mt today. 

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has gained $3.67/bbl on the day from Friday, to trade at $81.51/bbl at 09.00 GMT.

Upward pressure:

Brent’s price has surpassed the $80/bbl mark amid growing concerns about tight crude supplies in the global oil market.

The surge in Brent's price comes after the US government targeted Russia’s energy sector with increased sanctions on its major oil and tanker companies including Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas.

These sanctions “could affect tankers carrying approximately 1.5 million barrels per day [1.5 million b/d] of Russian crude—primarily destined for key Asian importers,” analysts from Saxo Bank said.

Brent futures gained more support amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will intensify oil sanctions on Iran. “Donald Trump has warned of maximum pressure on Iran, which could see additional sanctions introduced,” ANZ Bank’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes remarked.

Downward pressure:

A key risk to Brent's price rise lies in the possibility of supply exceeding demand, particularly as OPEC+ prepares to bring additional oil barrels back into the market.

The Saudi Arabia-led coalition has already postponed its plan to unwind the 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts from 1 October 2024 to 1 April 2025, with room open for further delays.

Moreover, non-OPEC supply, primarily from the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, is expected to grow by 1.5 million b/d in 2025, according to the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.

By Manjula Nair and Aparupa Mazumder

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