Prices in key European and African ports have moved in mixed directions, and bunker supply is good in the ARA hub.

IMAGE: Bunkering of vessel in the Port of Antwerp. Port of Antwerp
Changes on the day to 09.00 GMT today:

• VLSFO prices up in Gibraltar ($2/mt), and down in Rotterdam ($16/mt) and Durban ($1/mt)
• LSMGO prices down in Gibraltar ($10/mt) and Rotterdam ($3/mt) 
• HSFO prices up in Rotterdam ($3/mt), Durban ($2/mt), and down in Gibraltar ($6/mt)
• Rotterdam B30-VLSFO premium over VLSFO up by $56/mt to $296/mt
• Gibraltar B30-VLSFO premium over VLSFO up by $7/mt to $250/mt

Fuel prices in Rotterdam, Gibraltar and Durban have moved in mixed directions in the past day.

Bunker fuel availability has improved in the ARA hub. Lead times have reduced to 5-7 days for all grades, remaining stable for VLSFO and down from last week’s 9-10 days for HSFO and LSMGO.

Rotterdam’s B30-VLSFO price has risen by $40/mt in the past session, bringing its discount to Gibraltar close to parity.

Rotterdam’s Hi5 spread has narrowed by $19/mt to $49/mt now, as the port’s VLSFO price has declined steeply and HSFO has edged higher.

Meanwhile, congestion at Gibraltar has increased today, with four vessels currently waiting for bunkers, up from two yesterday, according to port agent MH Bland. The backlog of vessels has increased due to limited barge availability.

Brent:

The front-month ICE Brent contract has inched $0.03/bbl lower on the day, to trade at $68.50/bbl at 09.00 GMT.

Upward pressure:

Brent crude’s price has gained some support due to demand growth expectations.

US crude oil inventories fell by 577,000 bbls in the week ending 18 July, according to estimates from the American Petroleum Institute (API).

A drop in US crude stocks typically indicates higher demand and can lend some support to Brent's price.

Besides, oil got a boost from the US-Japan trade deal that includes a reduction in tariffs, US President Donald Trump said on social media platform Truth Social.

Under the agreement, Japan's auto sector will see a tariff of 15%, down from a total of 27.5% levies earlier, according to a Reuters report. Duties on other Japanese goods that were scheduled to come into effect from 1 August will also be lowered to 15% from 25%.

As part of the deal, Japan has also agreed to invest $550 billion in the US, Trump said.

Downward pressure:

Expectations of a large oil surplus later this year are adding headwinds for the oil market, as OPEC+ members continue to hike production levels every month, according to market analysts.

Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 41.56 million b/d last month, about 349,000 b/d higher than in May.

“Our oil balance indicates that the oil market will be in a large surplus in 4Q25,” two analysts from ING Bank noted.

Brent’s price rise was also capped by concerns over worsening US-EU trade ties and Trump’s looming 1 August tariff deadline.

“EU and US negotiators are heading into another week of negotiations, while Trump has threatened to hit the bloc’s exports with 30% tariffs,” said ANZ Bank’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes.

By Nachiket Tekawade and Aparupa Mazumder

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