Bunker prices across the region have largely declined, and vessel traffic and import volumes to Los Angeles are projected to drop.

IMAGE: Shipping containers stacked in the Port in Los Angeles, California. Getty Images

Changes on the day to 08.00 CDT (13.00 GMT) today:

• VLSFO prices down in Zona Comun ($10/mt), Balboa, New York ($5/mt), Houston ($3/mt) and Los Angeles ($1/mt)
• LSMGO prices up in New York ($2/mt), and down in Balboa ($10/mt), Houston and Los Angeles ($7/mt)
• HSFO prices down in Balboa ($10/mt), Los Angeles ($7/mt), Houston and New York ($3/mt)

Zona Comun’s VLSFO price has made the largest drop in the past session. Supply remains constrained at the anchorage, with recommended lead times of 10–12 days.

Zona Comun has had increased congestion recently. Two major suppliers - Minerva and Raizen - currently have barges in dry dock for maintenance.

New York is the only port where the price of LSMGO has increased. Price movements have shifted the port's LSMGO from a premium of $21/mt over Houston on 5 February to a discount of $42/mt today.

Lead times range from 3–5 days for VLSFO and LSMGO in New York, while HSFO typically requires longer.

Ship arrivals and import volumes to the Port of Los Angeles are expected to see a significant downturn.

Data from Port Optimizer, a vessel-tracking platform, shows that the number of ships expected between 4-10 May is down 44% compared to the same week last year.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract lost $1.02/bbl on the day, to trade at $65.75/bbl at 08.00 CDT (13.00 GMT).

Upward pressure:

Brent’s price has shrugged off the previous day’s losses as some concerns about the Sino-US trade dispute have eased.

Throughout this week, several media outlets reported that Washington is willing to lower tariffs on China, as it looks for ways to start negotiations with Beijing.

Additionally, US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering tariff exemptions on car part imports from China. This news has also supported Brent’s price gains and boosted broader market sentiment.

The easing of tariff tensions has calmed fears of a global trade war and supported demand expectations for commodities like oil, according to market analysts. “Oil’s staging a modest rebound this morning as the tape grabs onto signs of a potential US-China tariff thaw,” SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said.

Downward pressure:

Brent’s price gains have been capped by growing concerns about aggressive supply hikes from the OPEC+ coalition.

OPEC+ member Kazakhstan, after repeatedly exceeding production quota over the past year, has said it would put domestic interest over OPEC+ obligations. The country has been pumping crude oil well above the designated production quota following an expansion project at the Tengiz oilfield.

“Kazakhstan just shrugged off OPEC+ quotas, bluntly stating its production will follow national interests,” Innes said. “That kind of dissent undercuts any confidence in coordinated supply management — and keeps a lid on price enthusiasm,” he added.

OPEC+ has faced internal disagreements over quota compliance in the past, with one such rift prompting Angola to leave the alliance in 2023. “Further disagreement between OPEC+ members is a clear downside risk, as it could lead to a price war,” two analysts from ING Bank commented.

By Gautamee Hazarika and Aparupa Mazumder

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