European and African bunker benchmarks have moved in mixed directions, and prompt VLSFO supply is tight in the ARA hub.

IMAGE: Large container ship moored in a commercial dock at night in Rotterdam. Getty Images

Changes on the day to 09.00 GMT today:

• VLSFO prices up in Gibraltar ($11/mt) and Durban ($1/mt), and down in Rotterdam ($6/mt)
• LSMGO prices up in Gibraltar ($2/mt), and down in Rotterdam ($6/mt)
• HSFO prices up in Gibraltar ($1/mt), and down in Durban ($6/mt) and Rotterdam ($1/mt)
• Rotterdam B30-VLSFO premium over VLSFO up by $19/mt to $279/mt

Prices have moved in mixed directions in the past session. However, all grades in Rotterdam have decreased some. The port's Hi5 spread has narrowed from $31/mt yesterday to $26/mt today.

The port’s B30-VLSFO price has increased in the past session by $13/mt to $724/mt. According to Rotterdam's bunker sales data, demand for bio-bunkers in the port fell to 5% of its total demand in the first quarter of this year.

Securing prompt supply of VLSFO and HSFO can be difficult in the ARA hub, with recommended lead times of 8-10 days, according to a trader. LSMGO is more readily available with advised lead times of 3-5 days.

Alternatively, prices of all three fuel grades in Gibraltar have edged up. The Mediterranean port’s VLSFO premium over Rotterdam has increased by $17/mt to $43/mt. Gibraltar's Hi5 spread has widened to $23/mt from $13/mt.

Bunkering operations in the Gibraltar Strait ports are continuing without hurdles, according to port agent MH Bland. Today, there are five vessels waiting for bunkers at Gibraltar, one more than yesterday, the port agent added.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has inched $0.08/bbl higher on the day, to trade at $66.50/bbl at 9.00 GMT.

Upward pressure:

Brent’s price has shrugged off the previous day’s losses as some concerns about the Sino-US trade dispute have eased.

Throughout this week, several media outlets reported that Washington is willing to lower tariffs on China, as it looks for ways to start negotiations with Beijing.

Additionally, US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering tariff exemptions on car part imports from China. This news has also supported Brent’s price gains and boosted broader market sentiment.

The easing of tariff tensions has calmed fears of a global trade war and supported demand expectations for commodities like oil, according to market analysts. “Oil’s staging a modest rebound this morning as the tape grabs onto signs of a potential US-China tariff thaw,” SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said.

Downward pressure:

Brent’s price gains have been capped by growing concerns about aggressive supply hikes from the OPEC+ coalition.

OPEC+ member Kazakhstan, after repeatedly exceeding production quota over the past year, has said it would put domestic interest over OPEC+ obligations. The country has been pumping crude oil well above the designated production quota following an expansion project at the Tengiz oilfield.

“Kazakhstan just shrugged off OPEC+ quotas, bluntly stating its production will follow national interests,” Innes said. “That kind of dissent undercuts any confidence in coordinated supply management — and keeps a lid on price enthusiasm,” he added.

OPEC+ has faced internal disagreements over quota compliance in the past, with one such rift prompting Angola to leave the alliance in 2023. “Further disagreement between OPEC+ members is a clear downside risk, as it could lead to a price war,” two analysts from ING Bank commented.

By Samantha Shaji and Aparupa Mazumder

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