LSMGO and HSFO prices in East of Suez ports have moved in mixed directions, and VLSFO availability is tight across several Indian ports.

Changes on the day, to 17.00 SGT (09.00 GMT) today:

• VLSFO prices up in Zhoushan ($4/mt) and Fujairah ($2/mt), and down in Singapore ($1/mt)
• LSMGO prices up in Fujairah ($5/mt), and down in Zhoushan ($17/mt) and Singapore ($1/mt)
• HSFO prices up in Zhoushan ($3/mt), unchanged in Fujairah, and down in Singapore ($6/mt)

VLSFO prices in East of Suez ports have remained largely stable over the past day, with no significant fluctuations. In Singapore, VLSFO is at a slight premium of $6/mt over Fujairah and $5/mt over Zhoushan.

Availability in Singapore has improved, with recommended lead times now at 4–8 days, down from 7–11 days last week. In contrast, HSFO lead times have increased from 10–12 days to 13 days, while LSMGO lead times remain steady at 2–5 days. However, bunker operations in Singapore may face disruptions due to adverse weather conditions expected from 8–11 February.

In South Asia, India’s Mumbai continues to price its VLSFO significantly higher than Singapore, with a substantial premium of $105/mt.

Availability in Indian ports has tightened due to refinery maintenance and higher exports, making VLSFO subject to enquiry in multiple ports, including Kandla, Mumbai, Tuticorin, Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Cochin and Paradip. Additionally, a supplier in Haldia is nearly out of stock.

Meanwhile in Sri Lanka, lead times for all fuel grades have improved in the ports of Colombo and Hambantota, dropping from about nine days last week to around six days now.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has moved $0.17/bbl higher on the day, to trade at $74.91/bbl at 17.00 SGT (09.00 GMT).

Upward pressure:

Brent crude oil’s price has ended the week on a higher note following sweeping US sanctions against Iran, one of OPEC’s largest oil producers.

Washington's recent measures targeting Iranian oil, which aim to reduce Tehran’s exports to zero has supported oil prices. The global oil market had already anticipated a hardline stance from the Trump administration on Middle Eastern affairs.

“Crude oil endured a volatile session as Trump reiterated tighter sanctions on Iran and higher oil output in the US,” ANZ Bank senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said.

The market’s focus will now be on OPEC+’s next decision on whether to increase production or maintain output at current levels. Earlier this week, the Saudi Arabia-led oil producer group decided to stick to its current production policy of gradually raising oil output from April.

The decision to extend production cuts into 2025 signals that OPEC+ believes demand growth might not be robust enough to accommodate the full return of supply anticipated in 2025.

“President Trump has already made it clear that he wants OPEC to increase output. If he is successful in convincing the group to do that, it would help offset any potential losses from Russia and/or Iran,” two analysts from ING Bank noted.

“However, convincing OPEC may prove difficult, particularly considering that Saudi Arabia has a fiscal breakeven oil price of above $90/bbl,” they added.

Downward pressure:

The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) crude stocks report on Wednesday, showing a larger-than-expected surge in US crude inventories has capped some of Brent’s price gains.

Commercial US crude oil inventories surged 8.7 million bbls higher to touch 423 million bbls for the week ending 31 January, according to data from the EIA.

The stock build came despite a one percentage point increase in US refinery utilisation, which reached 84.5%.

A surge in US crude stocks can indicate a drop in oil demand, which can keep a lid on Brent price rises.

“Oil prices tumbled as bids vanished, shaking up traders just a day after the U.S. reported a massive crude inventory build that blew past expectations,” SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said.

By Tuhin Roy and Aparupa Mazumder

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