Crude oil production is increasing as more Middle Eastern volumes make their way back into the market. At the same time, oil demand is much lower than we expected. This begs the question: why are oil prices rising so rapidly, approaching the wartime highs seen in March and April?

It was only four months ago that a US-Iran peace agreement looked imminent, and we and the markets thought the war was about to end. Clearly, that did not happen! Oil prices reflect what is happening in the world, and Brent front-month futures have risen from $70/bbl back then to $90/bbl at the start of September and $115/bbl now. This is an increase that none of us can escape.