Bunker benchmarks in the Americas ports have taken mixed directions, and bunkering has remained suspended in GOLA.

Changes on the day to 08.00 CDT (13.00 GMT) today:

• VLSFO prices up in New York ($3/mt), and down in Los Angeles ($4/mt), Houston, Balboa and Zona Comun ($1/mt)
• LSMGO prices up in New York ($6/mt), and down in Balboa ($8/mt), Houston ($2/mt) and Los Angeles ($1/mt)
• HSFO prices up in New York ($6/mt), Houston ($3/mt) and Los Angeles ($1/mt), and down in Balboa ($11/mt)

Balboa’s HSFO price has dropped by $11/mt in the past day with downward pressure from two lower-priced firm offers. Meanwhile, Cristobal’s HSFO price has dropped by just $1/mt. This has flipped Balboa’s HSFO price premium of $3/mt over Cristobal, to a $7/mt discount now.

Balboa’s VLSFO price has dropped by $1/mt, widening the port’s Hi5 spread by $10/mt to $100/mt. It is slightly wider than Cristobal’s Hi5 spread of $92/mt.

VLSFO price at the New Orleans Outer Anchorage (NOLA) has dropped by $15/mt in the past day with pressure from a 150-500 mt lower-priced stem. Meanwhile, Houston’s VLSFO price has dropped marginally, flipping its $1/mt discount to NOLA yesterday, to a $13/mt premium now.

Bunkering has remained suspended in the Galveston Offshore Lightering Area (GOLA) since yesterday due to rough weather conditions. The area is experiencing strong gale-force wind gusts of up to 32 knots, making barge deliveries difficult there.

Brent

The front-month ICE Brent contract has dropped by $0.29/bbl on the day, to trade at $74.26/bbl at 08.00 CDT (13.00 GMT) today.

Upward pressure:

Brent crude’s price moved higher after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude oil inventories in the US declined by 1.58 million bbls in the week that ended 11 October, according to the API estimates.

A drop in US crude stocks indicates a growth in oil demand, which can put upward pressure on Brent’s price. “A constructive report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) supports sentiments in the immediate term,” two analysts from ING Bank noted.

The Middle East conflict has also supported Brent’s price gains, following another Israeli airstrike on southern Lebanon on Wednesday, which killed 16 people including the mayor, Reuters reported.

The airstrike came “despite Lebanon saying it had received some form of guarantee from the US that Israel will ease its offense,” ANZ Bank’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes remarked.

According to another CNN report, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet has prepared a plan for a retaliatory strike on Iran, which could happen before the US election on 5 November.

“This [news] raised concerns that US influence over Israeli tactics remains weak, bringing into question the US calls for Israel not to target Iran’s oil facilities in any retaliatory attack,” Hynes said.

Downward pressure:

Concerns over demand growth from China have kept Brent's price gains in check. The country imported 11.07 million b/d of crude oil in September, down from 11.56 million b/d imported in August.

The drop in China's crude imports indicates a slowdown in oil demand growth in the world’s second-largest crude oil-consuming nation. “Crude oil remains rangebound as demand worries, especially in China, a country at the forefront of electrification,” analysts from Saxo Bank said.

Meanwhile, monthly oil market outlooks from oil producers’ group OPEC and energy agency IEA released this week indicated “sluggish [oil] demand” for the next year, ING Bank’s analysts said, keeping pressure on oil prices.

In its October market outlook, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its global oil demand growth forecast to 1.9 million b/d, with total consumption expected to average 104.1 million b/d in 2024. This is about 106,000 b/d lower than its demand growth forecast made in September.

By Debarati Bhattacharjee and Aparupa Mazumder

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